[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Ferrochrome Prices Hold Steady at High Levels, Chrome Ore Market Remains Calm

On September 19, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,450-8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); east China high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content); South African high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 8,000-8,200 yuan/mt (50% metal content); Kazakhstan high-carbon ferrochrome was quoted at 9,000-9,300 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM.

This week, ferrochrome prices remained at a relatively high level, with the market operating strongly and steadily, and most participants optimistic about the October steel mill tender. Cost side, two rounds of coke price cuts were implemented, reducing coke costs by a cumulative 50 yuan; meanwhile, chrome ore spot prices held steady, and freight rates gradually pulled back to normalized levels. Considering the recent arrival of low-priced chrome ore futures, ore costs saw a slight decrease from early in the month. However, the rising ferrochrome market stimulated optimism in the chrome ore sector about future developments, and the slow increase in chrome ore futures also provided some boost to the spot market. It is expected that there is room for an increase in ferrochrome production costs going forward. Overall, smelting costs for ferrochrome experienced minor fluctuations, continuing to support ferrochrome prices. Producers' reluctance to budge on prices remained strong, with quotations concentrated in the range of 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Supply and demand side, the boost from the September-October peak season continued to be released, coupled with short-term macro tailwinds, leading to a noticeable recovery in the downstream stainless steel market. Although some steel mills reported production shifts and cuts, planned production for September remained at a relatively high level, creating rigid purchasing demand for ferrochrome. Additionally, with the National Day holiday approaching, pre-holiday stocking demand gradually emerged, with frequent inquiries and purchase operations recently. Amid a significant reduction in imported ferrochrome, domestic producers, stimulated by good profits, showed high production enthusiasm, and ferrochrome production maintained an upward trend, resulting in an overall supply and demand tight balance. The ferrochrome market is expected to remain strong and steady in the short term, awaiting guidance from the new round of steel mill tender prices.

Raw material side, on September 19, 2025, spot 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port were quoted at 56.5-58 yuan/mtu; 40-42% South African raw ore at 51.5-53 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 58-59 yuan/mtu; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate at 59-62 yuan/mtu; 40-42% Turkish chrome lumps at 60-61 yuan/mtu; 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate at 66-67 yuan/mtu, flat MoM. Futures side, 40-42% South African fines were offered at $280-284/mt; 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate were offered at $345-355/mt, up $2.5/mt MoM.

This week, spot chrome ore inquiries and transactions were mediocre, while futures quotations rose again with many deals, showing a slight divergence between the futures and spot markets. On the spot market, ferrochrome producers previously stockpiled and purchased to avoid tight raw material supply due to transportation restrictions. Currently, they are mainly consuming their existing inventory, and with the arrival of low-priced chrome ore at $265/mt, some producers have replenished their raw material stocks, leading to generally subdued overall demand for chrome ore. However, considering the pending release of pre-holiday stocking demand for National Day and the robust upward trend in ferrochrome prices boosting market confidence, traders remain optimistic about the future market. South African concentrate, due to concentrated supply and tight availability, recently showed a stronger willingness to hold firm on prices. Demand for Zimbabwean concentrate weakened, with limited sales. On the futures market, the overseas offer for South African 40-42% chrome concentrate at Tianjin Port increased slightly by $1 to $280/mt. During the week, overseas futures transactions ranged from 5,000 to 30,000 mt, with prices concentrated in the $280-284/mt range. Overseas miners showed a strong willingness to sell, and the upward adjustment in futures offers narrowed, indicating insufficient momentum for further increases. However, given that planned ferrochrome production remains at high levels, providing rigid demand support for chrome ore, ore prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. In terms of port inventory, total chrome ore port inventory this week was 3.0635 million mt, down 2.06% WoW. Tianjin Port's chrome ore inventory totaled 2.4607 million mt, down 1.37% WoW. Chrome ore port inventory fluctuates at highs, with some selling pressure, but market confidence persists supported by the peak consumption season and stocking demand. The chrome ore market is expected to remain stable with a positive outlook.